Why the French PM Resigned Following Only 27 Days – and What Could Happen Next

The French PM, Sébastien Lecornu, has resigned together with his government, under 30 days following his appointment and just hours after unveiling his ministers, dramatically deepening the country's governmental turmoil.

It is the latest shock development following recent incidents indicating that France, Europe's second-largest economy, faces growing governance challenges. Let's examine what just happened, the causes and what might come next.

What Just Happened?

Lecornu, who was appointed 27 days ago, tendered his resignation and that of his government on Monday, only half a day after the key members of his cabinet had been announced. He became the shortest-lived prime minister since the Fifth Republic began.

The 39-year-old, ex-defense chief, a close ally of Emmanuel Macron, was France’s fifth prime minister after Macron's second term and third leader post-parliament dissolution triggering snap polls that were held last summer.

Lecornu blamed party-political intransigence, saying he had been “ready to compromise, yet all factions demanded every other party to adopt its full programme.” It would “would require little to succeed,” but “partisan attitudes” and “certain egos” stood in the way, according to him.

His departure alarmed markets, with the CAC 40 stock index dropping 2% and the euro declined 0.7%. France’s debt-to-GDP ratio is the EU’s third-highest behind Greece and Italy, almost twice the 60% permitted under EU rules – as is the nearly 6% deficit forecast.

Why Did It Happen?

The roots of the crisis stem from that 2024 snap general election, that resulted in a split assembly split among three nearly equal factions: left-wing groups, nationalist right & the president's centrist coalition, with no group coming close to a clear majority.

The economic downturn worsened the uncertainty, as have the 2027 presidential race. The president is term-limited, as parties position themselves ahead of elections, compromise in the assembly is increasingly elusive.

He encountered a difficult task to approve spending cuts in a fractured parliament targeting reduction of the yawning budget deficit – a challenge that ousted his two immediate predecessors, removed by lawmakers for similar efforts.

The final catalyst leading to his exit appears to have been the reaction of the centre-right Les Républicains regarding the ministerial team. The party said the similar composition failed to represent a significant shift from previous approaches that Lecornu had promised.

Revealing key ministries last Sunday prompted fierce criticism from across the political spectrum, with allies and opponents denouncing it as either too rightwing or not rightwing enough, and threatening to topple the new government.

The return of Bruno Le Maire, long-time finance chief, to government as defence minister particularly enraged politicians from most parties, who saw it as a confirmation that Macron’s pro-business economic policies was non-negotiable.

Future Scenarios

Nationalist parties of Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella has called on Macron to disband the assembly and hold fresh elections, as leftist groups has reiterated longstanding calls for Macron's resignation.

Macron has three main options, all hazardous and uninviting. First, he might appoint another PM. Someone from his circle now appears unlikely, while even a moderate leftwinger could undermine his pension changes.

On the other hand, appointing a confirmed rightwinger would infuriate the left bloc. Due to urgent requirements to secure some agreement for approving annual spending, some analysts have suggested he may try to turn to a non-party political technocrat.

Second, he could dissolve the national assembly and initiate new elections, a move he has consistently said he is reluctant to do and which polls suggest could yield another split result – or bring nationalists to power.

The last choice would be to resign, however, he has repeatedly ruled out standing aside prior to the 2027 vote – a vote seen as a historic crossroads in French politics, with Le Pen sensing her best ever chance of taking power.